

😅 right some hyperbole there or what! I actually don’t disagree with the rest of that comment about nature and community but you really lose people by starting with wild statements like western culture is a disease! It’s sad because they probably had some decent points (nature, community etc) but override that with the flair of the dramatic and it’s hard to take seriously!



Yep, definitely not saying that we’re not below the replacement numbers despite certain demographics having more access and increases! The replacement number itself is so generic.
It’s based on developed country’s requirements without taking migration into account. So it’s not what most developed countries talking about declining birth rates, are actually aiming for. Australia, for example, is built on immigration, our goal being based on no immigration makes no sense! Other countries (Ireland for example) still have a high rate of emigration. A lot to take into consideration outside the very generic replacement number of 2.1 when you start to narrow it down 😅 You’re right about Israel in terms of developed countries! They’re sitting at ~2.9!
Some of the rhetoric I see seems to be that the birth rates have “suddenly” dropped which is far from accurate.
I’m looking at a couple of countries but particularly Australia. Contraception being introduced (early 60s) had a big effect as did the accessibility of abortion (70s). In fact, it appears that the biggest “sudden drop” actually occured through the 70s/early 80s. I wonder if they were speaking about it in the alarmist way we (society) do now.
Interestingly - Australia - teen pregnancies have dropped 75% since the 1970s. Gonna say this is a good thing about declining birth rates. 👏
I’m no data analyst but I think that it looks like the biggest factor for declining birth rates came with birth control. If not for that I think the graphs would look relatively stable with smaller fluctuations.
Australia actually had a small increase in the early 2020s! Still below 2.1 though!
I don’t know, it’s all very interesting. I think there are a lot of very good things about the birth rate having dropped. Found a study around the decreasing rate of “undesired births”. Such a nuanced topic! I’m sure there’s more numbers out there for individual countries about the projection around migration numbers needed rather than focusing on the generic replacement number.
A few of the sources I read;
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/historical-population/latest-release
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12205728/
https://www.id.com.au/insights/articles/australias-birth-rate-increases-for-the-first-time-in-10-years/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/